Bitcoin could be worth $125,000 by the end of the year if members of the Republican Party dominate the United States Congress after the Nov. 5 elections, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick has predicted.
As speculation about the US elections and Bitcoin BTCUSD prices approaches a frenzy, Kendrick shows himself to be bullish on the Republicans.
The Trump bump is looking powerful
Kendrick expects BTC to reach around $73,000 by Nov. 5, the day of the elections. If Republican former president Donald Trump is elected to a second term, Kendrick thinks BTC will rise around 4% when the result is announced, based on options information, and will rise another 10% within a few days. Kendrick wrote in a note:
“Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around USD 73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win; this is slightly below the c.USD 73,800 all-time high recorded in March.”
If current vice president Kamala Harris is elected president, Kendrick says BTC will trade lower for a while, but end the year at around $75,000. He notes that RealClearPolitics currently places the odds of a Trump win at 59% and Polymarket gives Trump a 75% chance of victory.
Crypto skews right
Polymarket’s odds were manipulated by a recently identified, but not named, whale that bet more than $20 million on a Trump win.
The crypto community perceives Trump to be more favorable to it than Harris, although Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen is a notable exception, having donated XRP (XRP) worth $11 million to Harris’s campaign.
Kendrick is not the only commenter who has a lot of confidence in Trump. An executive at crypto asset manager Bitwise predicted BTC would hit $92,000 in the event of a Trump victory. Crypto exchange Deribit predicted BTC to reach $80,000 by the end of November with a Trump win.
Less excitable observers, such as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, have said BTC will rise regardless of the election results.
